A Framework for Analyzing U.S. Export Potential where Goods are not Currently Traded | USDA FAS 10962 0200 10 21 0002

Opportunity Information: Apply for USDA FAS 10962 0200 10 21 0002

The grant opportunity titled "A Framework for Analyzing U.S. Export Potential where Goods are not Currently Traded" is a USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) discretionary research grant aimed at building practical, evidence-based tools to predict where U.S. agri-food exports could grow next, including for products that have not previously been exported to certain markets. The central idea is to move beyond relying on past trade flows (which do not exist for "non-traded" goods) and instead develop a structured forecasting approach that helps identify realistic new export opportunities for U.S. firms and industries. The initial geographic focus is a set of major African markets: Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Algeria. USDA/FAS highlights these countries because their share of total U.S. agri-food exports to Africa rose sharply between 2016 and 2019, reaching roughly 70 percent by 2019, while still representing about 2 percent of overall U.S. global agri-food exports. In other words, they are already important within the Africa portfolio and seen as promising platforms for expansion, but still small in the broader global export picture, leaving room for growth.

The project expects the funded researcher (or research team) to work closely with USDA/FAS and to complete several connected tasks that mirror how private-sector companies scout and validate new markets. First, the research should "scope" opportunities by systematically identifying which combinations of products and locations show the strongest potential for U.S. agri-food exporters. This involves using opportunity identification tools similar to what industry uses when it looks for new markets, rather than only using traditional academic trade models that depend heavily on historical export data. Second, once promising country-product opportunities are identified, the project must evaluate market conditions in those locations. This includes demand-side factors such as consumer preferences and purchasing power, supply-side and competitive factors such as local production and third-country competitors, and practical enabling constraints like transportation and cold-chain infrastructure, distribution channels, and trade logistics. It also includes regulatory and policy characteristics, such as import requirements, standards, tariffs, non-tariff barriers, labeling rules, and any other compliance issues that could shape the ability of U.S. products to enter and compete.

A third major expectation is that the work does not stop at identifying attractive markets; it must also examine what would need to change or be configured differently for U.S. products to succeed in those target segments. That means analyzing how U.S. exporters might need to tailor product attributes (for example, packaging sizes, quality specifications, price points, certifications, or processing characteristics) and how industry relationships might need to be organized (for example, partnerships with importers, distributors, retailers, food service operators, or local processors). This emphasis reflects a practical export development perspective: opportunity is not only about demand existing, but also about whether the product can be competitively positioned and reliably delivered under local market constraints. Fourth, the project requires development of custom models for each country-product pair, signaling that USDA/FAS is looking for forecasting methods that can be adapted to specific market contexts rather than a single one-size-fits-all model. The models are intended to generate trade forecasts even when direct historical export data are missing, which implies the use of proxy indicators, comparable-market analogs, demand estimation methods, and other techniques designed for "zero trade flow" situations.

In terms of deliverables, USDA/FAS anticipates that the project will produce a trade database with accompanying documentation, and that the forecasts and the methods used to generate them will be provided in machine-readable formats. The opportunity specifically notes the likelihood that underlying code files will be included, supporting reproducibility and reuse by government analysts and potentially by the research community. There is also an interest in making the database searchable, allowing users to query by country, commodity, and/or time period, which points to a tool that can support ongoing decision-making rather than a one-off report. Beyond data products, the project may also produce a written report that documents the methods, data sources, and results in a way that can be understood and applied by practitioners. USDA/FAS also supports broader dissemination, including sharing data and code, presenting findings in academic and government venues, and publishing peer-reviewed journal articles, which indicates the agency values both practical utility and methodological credibility.

Administratively, the opportunity is offered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture under CFDA 10.960 (Technical Agricultural Assistance). The funding instrument is a grant, the award ceiling is $200,000, and USDA/FAS expected to make one award. Eligibility is limited to private institutions of higher education, which positions this as an academic-led applied research effort rather than a private consulting contract. The notice was created July 14, 2021, with an original application deadline of August 13, 2021 at 11:59 PM EDT. Overall, the grant is best understood as a targeted, applied research initiative to build practical forecasting models and data infrastructure that help USDA/FAS and U.S. agri-food stakeholders identify, evaluate, and act on export opportunities in important African markets, including in situations where conventional trade data offers little guidance because the goods are not currently traded.

• The Department of Agriculture, Technical Agricultural Assistance 10.960 in the agriculture sector is offering a public funding opportunity titled "A Framework for Analyzing U.S. Export Potential where Goods are not Currently Traded" and is now available to receive applicants.
• Interested and eligible applicants and submit their applications by referencing the CFDA number(s): 10.960.
• This funding opportunity was created on Jul 14, 2021.
• Applicants must submit their applications by Aug 13, 2021 August 13, 2021, at 1159PM EDT. (Agency may still review applications by suitable applicants for the remaining/unused allocated funding in 2026.)
• Each selected applicant is eligible to receive up to $200,000.00 in funding.
• The number of recipients for this funding is limited to 1 candidate(s).
• Eligible applicants include: Private institutions of higher education.

Apply for USDA FAS 10962 0200 10 21 0002

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